Nigel Richards - One-in-the-bag pre-endgame analysis (CSW12)

Moves with equal percentages of wins, losses and draws are sorted descendingly according to the following heuristic:

H := (points scored with the move) + (mathematical expectation of the player's highest score next turn) - (mathematical expectation of the opponent's highest score next turn)

While this heuristic is generally good, the ordering according to it should be taken with a grain of salt; for selected examples, we give a better sub-ranking of the moves according to the mathematical expectation of the final spread of the game.

Example 1

This example between Nigel Richards and Ricky Purnomo is taken from here. Ricky was 29 points behind.
His rack: BEFGOOT
Unseen tiles from his point of view: ?EIINRTW
Game in gcg format

Game board

Ricky played [FOB 13M 28 EGOT], a move that lost all the time.

Only two moves led to some win or some draw:

Move H W-L-D Wins Losses Draws
[GOOF M11 16 BEOT] 6.750 1-7-0 +? +E +I +N +R +T +W
[TOGE M11 10 BFOO] 2.625 0-7-1 +E +I +N +R +T +W +?

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